Peace and calmness have never been to Ethiopia. Since its formation, the empire’s existential geneses were conquest and colonization of its very heterogeneous nations which were forcefully incorporated in its tyrannical state structures and boundaries. That’s why war, rebellion, misery, and poverty have always been inextricable from the footprints every Ethiopian regime and the empire’s history. The current regime is facing the ugliest form of that evil trajectory.

For the time being, the oppressive State structure of the empire that has been holding the oppressed nations together on an iron fist is being superseded by the freedom forces. Cumulative effects of the oppressed nations’ struggle have counterbalanced the violence means of the tyrannical State and demanding a genuine redress of the past atrocities and true democratic rule that respects the fundamental human rights. The regime led by 2019th Nobel Peace Laurent is neither in a position to meet and uphold these undeniable but long overdue demands of the oppressed nations nor stay with the spirit of the Nobel Award.

Instead of reforming the oppressive empire and establish a genuine multi-national democratic Ethiopia in which the rights and dignity of all are respected, PM Abiy Ahmed is solidifying the hegemonic tyrannical State structure that oppresses the people based on their beliefs and national origins. He’s nullifying the never implemented constitutional rights that grant the right to self-rule for the oppressed nations and he’s creating a constitutional ambiguity to stay in power and become the long-serving vicegerent of the past despotic predecessors.

PM Abiy Ahmed’s path is very dangerous but unsustainable. The historic traditional means of power, the violence, which Abiy is trying to rely on, is irrelevant. Masses of the oppressed nations are self-educated, economically grew, morally liberated, and can not be silenced by guns. They have the power to neutralize key State structures and if not deal with justly can violently overthrow the regime. In all likelihood, any denial approach to this reality will lead to a civil war, bloody disintegration of the empire, and possibly a massive genocide. Abiy Ahmed is not willing to accept this bare reality.

The ongoing violent demonstrations of the Oromo population which is following the assassination of a prominent Oromo singer, Hachalu Hundessa, are collateral effects Abiy’s denials and wrong approaches. These demonstrations will be the start of the inevitable bloody civil war and possibly might lead to genocide if the international community doesn’t intervene immediately.

Therefore, as Abiy Ahmed is showing an unwavering position of preserving the historic oppressive status quo ante and the masses of the oppressed nations are determined to bring genuine reform and democratic rule, bloody disintegration of the empire and civil war is a matter of given and the duty of preventing it now lies on the international community. The United Nations Security Council and other international bodies must intervene in the political crisis of Ethiopia without any delay. Forming a transitional government that represents all political forces in the short term means to avert the bloodshed.

BY Mohamed Garad